The World Bank has projected that Nigeria's economy will grow by 4.3 percent in 2026, with a further increase to an average of 4.4 percent from 2027 to 2028. This forecast is part of the bank's latest Nigeria Development Update (NDU), which was released in Abuja.

The report highlights a positive trajectory for economic activity, which is expected to strengthen from 4.0 percent in 2025 to 4.3 percent in 2026. The anticipated growth is attributed primarily to ongoing reforms, including the controversial removal of petrol subsidies and the liberalization of exchange rates. The World Bank emphasized the importance of sustaining these reforms to maintain a downward trend in poverty and inflation.

In the first half of 2026, Nigeria's economy recorded a growth rate of 4.2 percent, an increase from 3.9 percent in 2025. The growth has been primarily driven by sectors such as services and agriculture. Furthermore, inflation is projected to decrease to approximately 12 percent by 2028, down from around 15 percent.

The World Bank also noted that the economy of sub-Saharan Africa remains resilient despite various challenges, including geopolitical tensions and climate shocks. It reported that state revenues in Nigeria rose by about 93 percent in real terms between 2023 and 2025. However, the bank urged states to enhance spending efficiency and invest more in human capital to improve living standards and reduce poverty.

Taiwo Oyedele, Nigeria's Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, attended the report's launch and stated that these projections reflect the effectiveness of the current administration's reforms. He asserted that Nigeria's economy is currently growing faster than its population, which should contribute to a decline in poverty levels in the future. Oyedele called on Nigerians to support the ongoing reforms, emphasizing that the decisions made were in the best interest of the economy.

As Nigeria approaches general elections, the debate surrounding the fuel subsidy continues, with some presidential candidates suggesting a return to the subsidy if elected. The World Bank's report underscores the need for the government to remain committed to the reforms to fully realize their benefits and ensure sustainable economic growth.