Nigeria's agricultural trade balance has dramatically shifted from a surplus of N740.27 billion in the first half of 2025 to a deficit of N56.13 billion in the first half of 2026. This change, attributed to recent government import waivers and ongoing insecurity in farming areas, marks the end of a two-year period of trade surpluses, according to experts from the agriculture and trade sectors.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics reveals that agricultural exports plummeted by 33.28 percent, or N985.14 billion, falling to N1.98 trillion in H1 2026 from N2.96 trillion in H1 2025. In contrast, agricultural imports saw a smaller decline of 8.50 percent, or N188.74 billion, decreasing from N2.22 trillion to N2.03 trillion during the same timeframe. This disparity in export and import figures resulted in a N796.40 billion swing in the trade balance.

The current deficit follows a trend of fluctuating agricultural trade balances in Nigeria, which recorded a N365.74 billion deficit in H1 2023, before achieving surpluses of N194.92 billion in H1 2024 and N740.27 billion in H1 2025. However, the recent changes have alarmed agribusiness experts, who are calling for urgent government intervention.

Tunde Banjoko, Chairman of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s Agricultural and Allied Group, highlighted that recent government policies, particularly the waivers on imports of commodities like palm oil and rice, have made it more appealing for businesses to import rather than support local producers. He stated, “Some waivers were given for products like palm oil and rice, and the import tariffs were drastically reduced. It became more favourable for people to import than to patronise local producers.” This shift is expected to increase imports while discouraging local production and potentially leading to job losses as factories struggle to compete.

Insecurity has also played a crucial role in this downturn. Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, pointed out that many farmers have abandoned their farms due to safety concerns, with some ending up in internally displaced persons (IDP) camps. He noted, “Insecurity led many farmers to leave their farms. Many of them have ended up in IDP camps, and quite a number have completely abandoned farming.” The lack of output from farms directly impacts the ability to export agricultural products.

Additionally, Yusuf emphasized the rising costs of agricultural inputs, which are often imported, as a significant barrier to production. He urged the government to consider measures such as reducing the cost of fertilizers and agrochemicals, as well as establishing a minimum guaranteed price for agricultural produce to support farmers.

Experts are advocating for the acceleration of the Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones programme, which aims to enhance local production capabilities and reduce reliance on imports. Banjoko stated, “We should speed up such projects where we can produce enough for our country and start exporting, not look for shortcuts by reducing prices.”

The current agricultural trade deficit highlights the urgent need for policy adjustments and support mechanisms to bolster Nigeria's agricultural sector and ensure food security for the nation.