Nigeria's modular refining sector is poised for significant growth, with seven new refineries expected to begin operations in 2027. These facilities are projected to have a combined capacity of 83,000 barrels per day, according to insights shared by George Maher-Bonnett from Argus Media during the OTL Africa Downstream conference in Lagos.

Currently, Nigeria has four operational modular refineries, which collectively produce 32,000 barrels per day. The addition of the new refineries will more than double this capacity, enhancing the contribution of smaller refining operations to the country's domestic petroleum supply. However, details regarding the specific locations, ownership, and individual capacities of the new refineries have not yet been disclosed.

Maher-Bonnett's presentation, titled ‘African Energy Outlook’, emphasized the evolving dynamics of Nigeria's petroleum market, particularly in light of rising local refining capabilities and a notable decline in fuel demand. He noted that the decrease in demand is largely attributed to higher flat prices affecting consumer purchasing power. Despite this downturn, the report highlighted the crucial role of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in bolstering Nigeria's self-sufficiency in petroleum products.

The Dangote refinery, with a capacity of 700,000 barrels per day, is reportedly operating at high efficiency, maintaining steady gasoline output. This operational success is reducing the need for imports of certain petroleum products from Europe, as domestic production ramps up. Maher-Bonnett pointed out that the economics of transporting petroleum products from Europe to West Africa and the United States have weakened, further impacting the competitive landscape.

Additionally, the presentation noted that Ghana is also enhancing its refining capabilities, with the Tema refinery increasing its output to 45,000 barrels per day, contributing to the country's self-sufficiency in fuel production.

As Nigeria's petroleum products market adapts to these changes, the anticipated expansion of modular refining capacity signifies a strategic move towards greater independence in fuel production, potentially reshaping the region's energy landscape in the coming years.