Nigeria's annual average inflation is set to experience a significant decline, projected to fall to 15.6% in 2026, according to the latest economic assessment from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This marks a notable decrease from the 23.0% average inflation recorded in 2025, indicating a positive shift in the country's economic landscape.

The report highlights that key macroeconomic stabilisation measures are playing a crucial role in this anticipated slowdown. Analysts from Coronation Research attribute the easing inflationary pressures to increased exchange rate stability and enhanced domestic refining capacity, which are helping to moderate persistent price pressures across various supply chains.

Despite these positive indicators, the report warns that several risks could hinder the pace of inflation relief for both businesses and consumers. Factors such as rising energy and fertiliser costs, along with election-related spending, may temper the expected disinflation. Coronation Research noted, "Exchange rate stability and increased domestic refining capacity could help moderate price pressures. However, higher energy and fertiliser costs, alongside election-related spending, may slow the pace of disinflation."

In terms of economic growth, the IMF projects Nigeria's GDP to rise by 4.2% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027, driven primarily by ongoing foreign exchange reforms and robust performance in the non-oil sector. Analysts from Coronation Asset Management support these projections, estimating that the annual average inflation for 2027 will be approximately 14.56%, closely aligning with the IMF's forecast.

The recent history of Nigeria's economy has been marked by elevated price pressures, largely due to macroeconomic imbalances, foreign exchange volatility, and external supply chain disruptions. In response, the government has implemented aggressive policy interventions, including adjustments to the foreign exchange market and structural reforms aimed at boosting non-oil production. The focus has now shifted towards restoring price stability and stabilising the local currency.

The IMF's October 2026 World Economic Outlook update, along with analyses from Coronation Research, provides a comprehensive overview of Nigeria's macroeconomic trajectory. Following a period of tight monetary policy and a gradually stabilising foreign exchange regime, there are signs of easing price pressures across major consumer categories. However, the report cautions that lingering supply risks, elevated agricultural input costs, and fiscal pressures remain potential threats to the broader disinflation trend.

As Nigeria navigates these economic challenges, the outlook for inflation and growth appears cautiously optimistic, with structural reforms laying a foundation for long-term price moderation and economic stability.